‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Conflict on Iran Constricts India's LPG Availability.
The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's households.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of kitchen fuel are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.
Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."
Regional Impact
In a financial hub, media reports say up to a significant portion of eateries are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers note a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Government Stance
Yet, the authorities insists there is no shortage.
India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and spokespersons say cylinders are being reallocated to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.
Approximately a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now effectively closed by the conflict.
The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been sparked by rumors. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.
Widening Concern
Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.
According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.
India imports almost all of its oil. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.
Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The primary concern is kitchen fuel, experts note.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.
Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of hoarding.
An industry representative alleges price gouging.
"Retailers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.
