Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
