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Amid the considerable disarray following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.