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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the current field is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving in unison. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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