The Way Trump Secured a Gaza Breakthrough That Eluded Biden
Initially, the Israeli air strike on the Hamas negotiating team in Doha appeared like yet another intensification that drove the prospect of a ceasefire out of reach.
The attack on September 9 violated the sovereignty of an American ally and threatened expanding the hostilities into a broader regional conflict.
Diplomacy seemed to be in ruins.
However, it turned out to be a pivotal event that culminated in a deal, declared by Donald Trump, to release all captives still held.
That represents a objective that Trump, and Joe Biden previously, had pursued for nearly two years.
It is just the first step towards a more durable peace, and the specifics of Hamas disarmament, administering Gaza and full Israeli withdrawal are still to be worked out.
Yet if this deal holds, it could be Donald Trump's signature achievement of his return to office - one that eluded Joe Biden and his diplomatic team.
The president's distinct approach and crucial relationships with the Israeli government and the Arab world appear to have contributed in this breakthrough.
However, as with many diplomatic achievements, there were also elements involved beyond the control of both leaders.
A Close Relationship That Biden Never Had
Publicly, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
The president often states that Israel has no greater ally, and Netanyahu has called him as Israel's "greatest ever ally in the US presidency". Moreover these warm words have been backed up by deeds.
During his first presidential term, Trump relocated the American diplomatic mission in Israel from Tel Aviv to the contested capital and abandoned a traditional American stance that Jewish communities in the Palestinian West Bank are illegal, the view under global norms.
After the Israeli military began its air strikes against the Islamic Republic in June, the US leader directed American aircraft to strike the Iran's atomic sites with its most powerful conventional bombs.
Those public demonstrations of support may have given the president the room to apply more pressure on the Israeli government behind the scenes. As per sources, the president's negotiator, Steve Witkoff, pressured Netanyahu in the latter part of the year into accepting a halt in fighting in exchange for the freeing of a number of captives.
When Israel launched strikes against Syria's military in the summer, including bombing a place of worship, the US president urged his counterpart to alter tactics.
Trump exhibited a degree of determination and pressure on an Israel's leader that is virtually unprecedented, according to an analyst of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "There is no example of an American president literally telling an Israeli leader that they must agree or else."
Biden's connection with Netanyahu's government was consistently more strained.
The Biden team's "bear hug approach" argued that the US had to embrace Israel publicly in order to enable it to moderate the country's war conduct behind closed doors.
Underneath this was Biden's nearly half-century of backing for Israel, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the Gaza War. Each move Biden took endangered fracturing his own political backing, while Trump's loyal conservative voters provided him more flexibility to manoeuvre.
In the end, domestic politics or individual ties may have had less importance than the reality that, during Biden's presidency, the Israeli government was unwilling to reach an agreement.
Several months into his new administration, with Iran weakened, Hezbollah to its northern border greatly diminished and the coastal strip devastated, every one of its major strategy objectives had been accomplished.
Commercial Background Helped Secure Gulf's Backing
An Israeli strike in Doha, which killed a Qatari citizen but not the intended targets, led Trump to issue an final demand to Netanyahu. The war had to stop.
The US leader had allowed the Israeli military a relatively free hand in the territory. The president provided US armed support to Israeli operations in the neighboring country. But an strike on Qatari territory was a different matter entirely, pushing him closer to the Arab position on how best to conclude the conflict.
A number of administration figures have told media outlets that this was a decisive moment which motivated the president to exert full force to get a peace deal done.
The leader's strong connections with the Gulf states are widely known. He has commercial interests with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. He began both his presidential terms with official trips to the kingdom. This year, he also visited in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
The president's normalization agreements, which established ties between Israel and a number of Arab nations, such as the Emirates, was the biggest diplomatic achievement of his initial presidency.
The time he spent in the capitals of the Gulf region in recent months contributed to change his thinking, says an expert of the a policy institute. Trump did not visit Israel on this regional tour but visited the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar where he heard consistent appeals to put a stop to the conflict.
Less than a month after that attack on Doha, Trump sat nearby as the prime minister himself phoned Qatar to apologise. Subsequently, the Israeli leader signed off on Trump's comprehensive proposal for Gaza - one that also had the backing of key Muslim nations in the area.
If Trump's relationship with Netanyahu provided him the ability to influence the government to reach an agreement, his past with Muslim leaders may have ensured their support, and assisted them convince Hamas to commit to the deal.
"One of the things that evidently occurred was that President Trump gained influence with the Israelis, and through intermediaries with Hamas," notes Jon Alterman of the a research center.
"This was crucial. His ability to do this on his timing, and avoid yielding to the demands of the warring sides has been a problem that many earlier administrations have struggled with, and he appears to handle with some success."
The reality that the president is far better liked in Israel than the prime minister personally was an advantage that Trump employed to his benefit, he adds.
Currently Israel has committed to freeing more than 1,000 Palestinians imprisoned in its jails and has consented to a partial withdrawal from Gaza.
The group will free all the captives still held, both alive and deceased, taken during the original 7 October Hamas attack, which resulted in the loss of more than 1,200 Israelis.
A conclusion to the conflict, which has led to the devastation of Gaza and the fatalities of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal